Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission a Systematic Review of Structural Approaches

Review

doi: 10.1371/periodical.pone.0049085. Epub 2012 Nov 6.

Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches

Affiliations

• PMID: 23139836
• PMCID: PMC3490912
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049085

Free PMC article

Review

Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue manual: a systematic review of structural approaches

Mathieu Andraud  et al. PLoS One. 2012 .

Free PMC article

Abstract

Dengue is a vector-borne illness recognized equally the major arbovirose with iv immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many owned areas. Several mathematical models have been adult to understand the manual dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the 4 different dengue serotypes. Nosotros aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in gild to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for time to come model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. Afterward defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models causeless either vector-host or direct host-to-host manual (ignoring the vector component). For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected touch of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would exist required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their employ as almost relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited agreement of the factors which influence dengue manual as well equally express data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world determination problems.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors take alleged that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1. Flow chart representation of the selection procedure.

Sixteen were excluded because of not-English language language: Spanish (8), Portuguese (5) and French (three) in the offset step of the selection procedure.

Effigy 2. Distribution of the number of articles according to the twelvemonth of publication.

Figure 3. 'Phylogenetic tree' of selected articles.

Models are decomposed co-ordinate to the number of serotypes considered (one (blackness lines), ii (bluish full lines) or more than than ii (cherry-red dashed lines) serotypes. Each branch of the tree corresponds to a modification of the initial model owing to additional assumptions. The discussion "enhancement" refers to the different modelling assumptions to represent the effect of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and CP stands for Cross-Protection. * Extensions of Host-to-Host manual models , including the vector population.

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Grant support

This study was financed by the University of Antwerp (UA)'s concerted research action project nr 23405 (BOF-GOA). NH besides acknowledges support from the UA scientific chair in evidence based vaccinology. The funders had no function in report pattern, information collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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